Monero price forecast: XMR correction or free fall after resent peak?
Monero (XMR), the leading privacy-focused cryptocurrency, has dropped nearly $100 from its recent peak amid strong sell-side pressure. On-chain and technical indicators signal bearish momentum. Futures data hints at dip buying and potential rebound. Monero is facing significant turbulence after a sharp rally that propelled its price past $420 earlier this month. The recent correction, […] The post Monero price forecast: XMR correction or free fall after resent peak? appeared first on CoinJournal.
- Monero (XMR), the leading privacy-focused cryptocurrency, has dropped nearly $100 from its recent peak amid strong sell-side pressure.
- On-chain and technical indicators signal bearish momentum.
- Futures data hints at dip buying and potential rebound.
Monero is facing significant turbulence after a sharp rally that propelled its price past $420 earlier this month.
The recent correction, which saw Monero’s price drop by nearly $100 in just three days, has sparked intense debate among market participants over whether this signals a brief retracement or a deeper bearish trend.
Today, XMR has lost over 12% of its value, extending a two-day decline that had already erased 11% from its peak.
XMR price analysis
Although the broader market remains relatively stable, Monero’s price action diverges notably, underpinned by bearish on-chain metrics and technical signals that suggest increasing selling pressure.
On-chain data from CryptoQuant reveals that Monero’s Spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) has remained red throughout May, indicating a sustained sell-side dominance that continues to weigh down price momentum.
In tandem with this, the Taker CVD—a metric that captures the net difference between market buy and sell volumes—has increasingly tilted toward sellers, reflecting intensified bearish sentiment over the past three weeks.
Additionally, retail investor behavior adds further downside risk, as the Futures Retail Activity Through Trading Frequency Surge index shows a surge in activity typically associated with market tops.
High-frequency retail trading, often driven by emotion and short-term price chasing, tends to coincide with local peaks, making the current scenario a potential harbinger of deeper correction.
The technical picture aligns with the on-chain narrative, as Monero’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) has sharply fallen from overbought territory above 70 to around the neutral level of 50.
This drop in RSI underscores the weakening bullish momentum and a possible shift toward a bearish phase, especially as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator confirms a bearish crossover.
Monero price prediction
Given this alignment of bearish signals, the likelihood of further downside appears high, particularly with price action currently flirting with its 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $293.5, measured from the April low of $167 to May’s $420 high.
Nonetheless, despite the mounting pressure, futures market dynamics reveal a more complex sentiment, as open interest in XMR derivatives has surged to its highest level since December.
This spike in open interest, occurring alongside positive funding rates, implies that a growing segment of traders may be positioning for a rebound by buying the dip.
While open interest alone does not determine direction, it reflects heightened speculative participation, which, if sustained, could cushion further declines or even fuel a swift recovery.
Still, as prices test key support zones, bulls will need to defend the $293.5–$303 range vigorously to prevent a cascading liquidation event that could trigger a steeper fall.
If Monero fails to hold this level, the price may slide further, potentially retracing to deeper Fibonacci support levels or consolidating at lower ranges before any meaningful recovery.
On the other hand, a sustained bounce from current levels could challenge recent resistance around $400 and possibly retest the peak at $420, although such a move would likely require improved sentiment and volume.
Overall, Monero finds itself at a pivotal juncture where technical weakness confronts bullish futures sentiment, leaving traders to weigh whether this is a healthy correction or the beginning of a prolonged downturn.
In the coming days, close monitoring of on-chain metrics, retail activity, and derivative flows will be crucial for anticipating Monero’s next decisive move.
The post Monero price forecast: XMR correction or free fall after resent peak? appeared first on CoinJournal.
