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I Think I Discovered a Pattern
I was digging into historical Bitcoin halving cycles and think I spotted a surprisingly consistent pattern that might tell us what the peak price for this cycle could be. Here’s what I found: BTC Halving to Peak Multipliers: 2012 Halving: ~$12 → ~$1,150 = ~95x 2016 Halving: ~$650 → ~$20,000 = ~30x 2020 Halving: ~$8,600 → ~$69,000 = ~8x I ran the numbers and noticed something cool: Each cycle's multiplier drops by a factor of roughly 3.3-3.5x. ➗ Here's the math: 95 / 30 ≈ 3.17 30 / 8 = 3.75 Average drop factor: ~3.46x So if we apply the same factor again: 8 / 3.46 ≈ 2.3x Prediction for This Cycle: 2024 Halving Price ≈ $63,000 Predicted Peak ≈ $145,000 (63K × 2.3) This lines up with the idea that Bitcoin’s gains are still exponential - just at a slowing, compressing rate over time. Obviously, nothing is guaranteed, but this could be useful for setting realistic expectations and exit targets going into late 2025. Curious to hear your thoughts! Is this just coincidence, or is there a real pattern here? submitted by /u/is_NAN [link] [comments]
I was digging into historical Bitcoin halving cycles and think I spotted a surprisingly consistent pattern that might tell us what the peak price for this cycle could be.
Here’s what I found:
BTC Halving to Peak Multipliers:
2012 Halving: ~$12 → ~$1,150 = ~95x
2016 Halving: ~$650 → ~$20,000 = ~30x
2020 Halving: ~$8,600 → ~$69,000 = ~8x
I ran the numbers and noticed something cool:
Each cycle's multiplier drops by a factor of roughly 3.3-3.5x.
➗ Here's the math:
95 / 30 ≈ 3.17
30 / 8 = 3.75
Average drop factor: ~3.46x
So if we apply the same factor again:
8 / 3.46 ≈ 2.3x
Prediction for This Cycle:
2024 Halving Price ≈ $63,000
Predicted Peak ≈ $145,000 (63K × 2.3)
This lines up with the idea that Bitcoin’s gains are still exponential - just at a slowing, compressing rate over time.
Obviously, nothing is guaranteed, but this could be useful for setting realistic expectations and exit targets going into late 2025. Curious to hear your thoughts!
Is this just coincidence, or is there a real pattern here?
[link] [comments]
