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2030-2032: The Years Bitcoin Becomes Unbuyable
Scarcity and liquidity are some of the main attractions of Bitcoin as an asset and monetary system; however, I hadn't seen any real calculations on when it will become 'essentially unbuyable'. This meaning that demand completely outweighs supply. Some basic data points towards 2028-2032 as being critical years in Bitcoin's life, where it will become the first digital asset to be essentially unbuyable. Bitcoin has a max supply of 21 million 19.7 million has already been mined 3–4 million are estimated as lost forever That leaves about15M in circulation, but... Only 2 million BTC are left on exchanges right now. A number that is dropping at an increasing rate. What's happening at the moment: Long-term holders are stacking and not selling Big buyers (ETFs, institutions, whales etc) are pulling BTC off exchanges into cold storage New demand (retail + institutional) keeps growing, but available supply is drying up. Based on current trends: Exchange reserves are dropping100k-200k BTC every year If this continues, exchange BTC could drop below 100k by around 2028-2029 By 2030-2032, there may be days where available BTC is near zero unless sellers emerge At that point, you won’t be able to buy BTC without a large price impact: the price will have to rise dramatically to convince anyone to sell What this means: Big price spikes just to get someone to sell Slippage on large orders Possibly insane premiums in bull markets Essentially: Bitcoin could become “unbuyable” in the traditional sense. submitted by /u/AcidUrine [link] [comments]
Scarcity and liquidity are some of the main attractions of Bitcoin as an asset and monetary system; however, I hadn't seen any real calculations on when it will become 'essentially unbuyable'. This meaning that demand completely outweighs supply.
Some basic data points towards 2028-2032 as being critical years in Bitcoin's life, where it will become the first digital asset to be essentially unbuyable.
- Bitcoin has a max supply of 21 million
- 19.7 million has already been mined
- 3–4 million are estimated as lost forever
- That leaves about15M in circulation, but...
Only 2 million BTC are left on exchanges right now. A number that is dropping at an increasing rate.
What's happening at the moment:
- Long-term holders are stacking and not selling
- Big buyers (ETFs, institutions, whales etc) are pulling BTC off exchanges into cold storage
- New demand (retail + institutional) keeps growing, but available supply is drying up.
Based on current trends:
- Exchange reserves are dropping100k-200k BTC every year
- If this continues, exchange BTC could drop below 100k by around 2028-2029
- By 2030-2032, there may be days where available BTC is near zero unless sellers emerge
- At that point, you won’t be able to buy BTC without a large price impact: the price will have to rise dramatically to convince anyone to sell
What this means:
- Big price spikes just to get someone to sell
- Slippage on large orders
- Possibly insane premiums in bull markets
- Essentially: Bitcoin could become “unbuyable” in the traditional sense.
[link] [comments]
