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Why taking out bitcoin loans to spend/retire is a dumb idea !
Lately I come across several youtube videos about taking out bitcoin backed loans to take out some capital to use. In this video for example https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0dbBQyIGT_4&t=1401s&ab_channel=MarkMoss He did made a pretty calculated sheet to sum up to rollover the debt into infinity. He give a link to download his sheet (download never work), but I verified his claims and it all seems pretty bad math at the end. To sum it all up. His % gain of bitcoin is way on the upper trendline. I made a more 'realistic/bad' case scenario that invalidates his calculations. As you can see if we are following anything lower then his projected bear/bull trendline this whole pyramid will collapse like a house of cards. A 2 year bear case will end up losing your bitcoin stack entirly or anything less then mine projected % gain, you will need to sell your bitcoin too. Even if this plays out like in mine sheet (bearcase) the risk is not really worth the effort. If you want to leave this rollover debt game, after 11 years you accumulated 95k for 0.25btc with a lhigh potential losing your entire bitcoin too. And even if his sheet calculation are right at the end and bitcoin is worth $4 million in 2034. (instead of $767k in mine sheet) was it really worth the risk instead of just holding for another 5 years and just sell off what you need to use? https://preview.redd.it/ebjw8uuk7i5f1.png?width=1663&format=png&auto=webp&s=e76f78ce8b4183edb47f455ee428e11bc958df73 submitted by /u/inhodel [link] [comments]
| | Lately I come across several youtube videos about taking out bitcoin backed loans to take out some capital to use. In this video for example https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0dbBQyIGT_4&t=1401s&ab_channel=MarkMoss He did made a pretty calculated sheet to sum up to rollover the debt into infinity. He give a link to download his sheet (download never work), but I verified his claims and it all seems pretty bad math at the end. To sum it all up. His % gain of bitcoin is way on the upper trendline. I made a more 'realistic/bad' case scenario that invalidates his calculations. As you can see if we are following anything lower then his projected bear/bull trendline this whole pyramid will collapse like a house of cards. A 2 year bear case will end up losing your bitcoin stack entirly or anything less then mine projected % gain, you will need to sell your bitcoin too. Even if this plays out like in mine sheet (bearcase) the risk is not really worth the effort. If you want to leave this rollover debt game, after 11 years you accumulated 95k for 0.25btc with a lhigh potential losing your entire bitcoin too. And even if his sheet calculation are right at the end and bitcoin is worth $4 million in 2034. (instead of $767k in mine sheet) was it really worth the risk instead of just holding for another 5 years and just sell off what you need to use? [link] [comments] |
