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Is the Bitcoin Pool Getting Smaller?
https://preview.redd.it/chu8noc4xh4f1.png?width=1536&format=png&auto=webp&s=c053b26b2b6353312f96ecb90064a2b207fea1f6 Is there a way to prove the Bitcoin pool is getting smaller? Let me start by explaining what I mean by Bitcoin pool. Bitcoin pool = 21 million – Bitcoins to be mined – Lost bitcoins – Hodlers Bitcoins Although it is not possible to determine the exact number, I’ve been curiously looking into some indicators that might help us determine in which direction we are going. Be your own judge and let me know how you would improve it. 1. Dormant bitcoin addresses https://preview.redd.it/4tesx3hnvh4f1.png?width=940&format=png&auto=webp&s=b607654c1deb7627f3689082d1d5745443496968 In this graph we can see how many bitcoins are in dormant bitcoin addresses. A dormant address means it has no bitcoins leaving that address for X amount of time. To give you an example, there are 5.76M bitcoins that belong to addresses where their last movement out was before 01-Jan-2020, so more than 5 years. Almost 6M bitcoins are either lost or belong to holders, so, right now, they don’t belong to the bitcoin pool. I collected data from this graph at 01-May and 01-June and checked the difference by dormant years. https://preview.redd.it/gel4lnlpvh4f1.png?width=489&format=png&auto=webp&s=864025bcd77b34c399185a3c67f1372d5d772950 If we look at 6+ years, it is slightly higher. However, it seems during the month of May there are less dormant bitcoins for 1 to 4 years than before, possibly indicating the pool is not smaller from May until now. (would love to compare with data from June-2024). 2. Countries & Companies Another indicator I looked at is the number of bitcoins held by companies and countries. Usually, these entities have holder behaviors (regardless of their reasons to do so). This information may not be 100% accurate since it is based on information released to the public. Again, I compared the data from 01-May to 01-June. https://preview.redd.it/irantj4rvh4f1.png?width=554&format=png&auto=webp&s=df5a5e4a071c14b598377f1c2b438dc604369ae0 In June the total number of bitcoins held by countries and companies is slightly higher than it was in May. After checking the details, is mainly because of MicroStrategy purchases. The total by itself doesn’t help us understand if the bitcoin pool is getting smaller, because if some companies are buying and others selling, they are trading from the bitcoin pool and not adding to the hodler pool. So, I analyzed it by entity and confirmed that all of them hold the same amount, with exception to a few bought more. As such, I consider it as a positive indicator that the bitcoin pool is smaller, even if by a little. 3. Exchanges I also checked the number of bitcoins held by exchanges. Usually holders prefer cold storage, so seeing a reduction in exchanges could potentially indicate more holders and a smaller bitcoin pool. https://preview.redd.it/fb2807csvh4f1.png?width=940&format=png&auto=webp&s=3787748e2ddf3820063d53d1018db473a2cd1734 From the graph we can see how by January 2024 there were around 2.7M bitcoins in exchanges, and that number has been decreasing over time to what seems an all time-low a few days ago, around 2.15M. However, this time frame overlaps with Bitcoin ETFs emerge and mostly explains it. I did some quick math and it adds up. Still, it is a good indicator to keep an eye on. 4. Bitcoin Trading Volume By itself we can’t conclude anything from this. But, if more and more bitcoins are lost and held longer, in theory there should be less trading volume overtime. Periods of high ups and downs will drive the trading volume up, but if the pool is smaller, we should see less waves. https://preview.redd.it/775qqkxuvh4f1.png?width=940&format=png&auto=webp&s=941aa7e463b2b4936027c87863607e866ad20977 This graph shows the trading volume of bitcoins by month over the last 5 years in exchanges, and we can see how it has been slowly decreasing. Less bitcoins are changing from hand to hand. In my opinion this looks like a positive indicator that the pool might be becoming smaller. Conclusion: There are multiple signs over the years that the bitcoin pool is indeed becoming smaller, however I would expect that is not a constant size down, but there will be ups and downs. I would like to continue to monitor this indicators and although some months it will be bigger than the previous one, over time I expect it will show significant decrease. Here’s the sources I used: 1. https://bitinfocharts.com/top-100-dormant_5y-bitcoin-addresses.html 2. https://bitbo.io/treasuries/?utm_source=chatgpt.com 3. https://www.coinglass.com/Balance 4. https://data.bitcoinity.org/markets/volume/5y?c=e&r=month&t=b Do you agree with my analyze? Which other indicators would you look into? Let’s make a positive discussion out of this. Thank you submitted by /u/Standard-Campaign-38 [link] [comments]
| | Is there a way to prove the Bitcoin pool is getting smaller? Bitcoin pool = 21 million – Bitcoins to be mined – Lost bitcoins – Hodlers Bitcoins Although it is not possible to determine the exact number, I’ve been curiously looking into some indicators that might help us determine in which direction we are going. Be your own judge and let me know how you would improve it.
1. Dormant bitcoin addresses In this graph we can see how many bitcoins are in dormant bitcoin addresses. A dormant address means it has no bitcoins leaving that address for X amount of time. To give you an example, there are 5.76M bitcoins that belong to addresses where their last movement out was before 01-Jan-2020, so more than 5 years. Almost 6M bitcoins are either lost or belong to holders, so, right now, they don’t belong to the bitcoin pool. I collected data from this graph at 01-May and 01-June and checked the difference by dormant years. If we look at 6+ years, it is slightly higher. However, it seems during the month of May there are less dormant bitcoins for 1 to 4 years than before, possibly indicating the pool is not smaller from May until now. (would love to compare with data from June-2024).
2. Countries & Companies Another indicator I looked at is the number of bitcoins held by companies and countries. Usually, these entities have holder behaviors (regardless of their reasons to do so). This information may not be 100% accurate since it is based on information released to the public. Again, I compared the data from 01-May to 01-June. In June the total number of bitcoins held by countries and companies is slightly higher than it was in May. After checking the details, is mainly because of MicroStrategy purchases. The total by itself doesn’t help us understand if the bitcoin pool is getting smaller, because if some companies are buying and others selling, they are trading from the bitcoin pool and not adding to the hodler pool. So, I analyzed it by entity and confirmed that all of them hold the same amount, with exception to a few bought more. As such, I consider it as a positive indicator that the bitcoin pool is smaller, even if by a little.
3. Exchanges I also checked the number of bitcoins held by exchanges. Usually holders prefer cold storage, so seeing a reduction in exchanges could potentially indicate more holders and a smaller bitcoin pool. From the graph we can see how by January 2024 there were around 2.7M bitcoins in exchanges, and that number has been decreasing over time to what seems an all time-low a few days ago, around 2.15M. However, this time frame overlaps with Bitcoin ETFs emerge and mostly explains it. I did some quick math and it adds up. Still, it is a good indicator to keep an eye on.
4. Bitcoin Trading Volume By itself we can’t conclude anything from this. But, if more and more bitcoins are lost and held longer, in theory there should be less trading volume overtime. Periods of high ups and downs will drive the trading volume up, but if the pool is smaller, we should see less waves. This graph shows the trading volume of bitcoins by month over the last 5 years in exchanges, and we can see how it has been slowly decreasing. Less bitcoins are changing from hand to hand. In my opinion this looks like a positive indicator that the pool might be becoming smaller. Conclusion: There are multiple signs over the years that the bitcoin pool is indeed becoming smaller, however I would expect that is not a constant size down, but there will be ups and downs. I would like to continue to monitor this indicators and although some months it will be bigger than the previous one, over time I expect it will show significant decrease. Here’s the sources I used: 1. https://bitinfocharts.com/top-100-dormant_5y-bitcoin-addresses.html 2. https://bitbo.io/treasuries/?utm_source=chatgpt.com 3. https://www.coinglass.com/Balance 4. https://data.bitcoinity.org/markets/volume/5y?c=e&r=month&t=b
Do you agree with my analyze? Which other indicators would you look into? Let’s make a positive discussion out of this. Thank you [link] [comments] |
