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I tested DCA vs Lump Sum 50+ times. Lump Sum wins 81% of the time
I’ve seen so many people say “just DCA, bro”. So I got curious and ran the numbers myself using a Bitcoin DCA calculator. Here’s what I tested: Fixed amount of cash (e.g., $44k) Strategy 1: Lump Sum – buy all at once Strategy 2: Weekly DCA Backtested over dozens of start dates since 2014 The Result? Lump Sum beats DCA ~81% of the time. Why? Because Bitcoin usually goes up over time. Waiting to enter the market just delays exposure to upside. DCA only won in a few cases — and only when I happened to start right before a major crash (like late 2021). But those are rare and hard to predict. So here’s the tradeoff: Lump Sum = better average outcome DCA = better sleep at night If you’re sitting on a big cash stack and thinking about easing in… just know that historically, you’re paying for that emotional buffer. The math is clear: unless you know a crash is coming, Lump Sum gives you more Bitcoin. Happy stacking. submitted by /u/Necessary_Flounder_7 [link] [comments]
| | I’ve seen so many people say “just DCA, bro”. So I got curious and ran the numbers myself using a Bitcoin DCA calculator. Here’s what I tested:
The Result? Lump Sum beats DCA ~81% of the time. Why? Because Bitcoin usually goes up over time. Waiting to enter the market just delays exposure to upside. DCA only won in a few cases — and only when I happened to start right before a major crash (like late 2021). But those are rare and hard to predict. So here’s the tradeoff:
If you’re sitting on a big cash stack and thinking about easing in… just know that historically, you’re paying for that emotional buffer. The math is clear: unless you know a crash is coming, Lump Sum gives you more Bitcoin. Happy stacking. [link] [comments] |
![[link]](https://i.redd.it/vvdqhk1xh58f1.png){kind=link}