Makhachev, Tsarukyan meet at apex of their careers, five years after first bout

LOS ANGELES — It’s not that Islam Makhachev underestimated Arman Tsarukyan when they first fought in April 2019. Preparation is his whole thing. Intensity, discipline, grit, exhaustiveness — they’re the building block values of the future hall-of-famer’s career.

He couldn’t estimate him. Desperately in need of an opponent ahead of a home card in St. Petersburg, Russia, Makhachev agreed to that fight on four weeks’ notice not knowing the first thing about who Tsarukyan was.

The mysterious Armenian had spent his brief professional career dusting cans with tiny regional promotions in Russia, China, and South Korea. You couldn’t locate the venues of these fights, let alone the film. On Tsarukyan’s Tapology page, one of his victories is listed simply as “Win.” Not “KO/TKO at 1:47 of the first round,” not “Rear Naked Choke at 3:54 of the second round.” Just “Win.”

So, was that unfamiliarity the reason why Tsarukyan pushed Makhachev as far as he did, giving the current UFC lightweight champion one of the stiffest tests in his dominant career? Or — funny as it is to say about a division’s No. 1 contender — is Tsarukyan better than people give him credit for? Was he just ahead of his time when he first faced Makhachev, and now, nearly six years of experience and development later, a fully formed entity ready to shock the world?

That’s the crux of Saturday’s fight between these two, as they meet again at UFC 311 in Inglewood, Calif. — a lightweight title fight that will tell us just as much about where these fighters were then, as where they are now.

“I will be more prepared. Now I know everything about what Arman can do,” Makhachev said Wednesday at the fighters’ hotel in downtown Los Angeles, conceding that Tsarukyan’s wrestling prowess surprised him in their first fight. “Maybe the first time I was a little bit underestimating — because before that he never fought in the UFC. I never saw him fight. But right now, I know everything.”

With Makhachev, it often seems that way. He’s widely regarded as the sport’s pound-for-pound best for a reason — a tenacious, physical force with a diverse skillset who’s dangerous no matter where a fight goes. But his secret sauce is a deep, experienced training camp as good as any at breaking down opponents, crafting gameplans, and neutralizing the most threatening challenges any particular matchup presents.

That feeds directly into one of Makhachev’s most underrated strengths — not getting hit. He’s absorbed only 1.51 strikes per minute over his career, the lowest among active lightweights by a substantial margin. And the fourth-lowest in the division’s history.

That’s partly due to the Dagestani wrestler’s style, of course. It’s hard to hit a guy who’s on top of you driving his skull underneath your chin. But Makhachev spent half of his last title defence on his feet with gritty striker Dustin Poirier. And a fight prior, he didn’t attempt a single takedown against Alexander Volkanovski, knocking the legendary featherweight out with a head kick in the first round.

But Tsarukyan ought to be the most physical, explosive athlete Makhachev’s met since he won the belt. His wrestling is unquestionable but he’s a dynamic striker on the feet, as well, having won each of his last two fights via knockout. His hooks are heavy; his jab’s lightning quick; he finds slight openings in the clinch for creative uppercuts and knees (just ask Beneil Dariush); he can target the legs, body, and head with a variety of kicks from range.

Makhachev can always lean back on the fact he’s beaten Tsarukyan once before. But the raw, unevolved Tsarukyan he beat five-plus years ago isn’t the guy he’ll encounter Saturday.

“It’s going to be different. I improved my striking so much. My wrestling. I’m smarter than I was,” Tsarukyan said. “I’ve got a lot of different techniques. Not just a simple, one-two, kick. Now I have good combinations that I can throw. It’s going to be a little bit different. We’re going to strike more than wrestle, I feel like.”

If that proclamation materializes, Saturday’s fight will be the antithesis to the first time these two met for that pre-pandemic prospect clash in St. Petersburg:

To catch that fight was to see Led Zeppelin open for The Who at a small London venue in the 1960s. Makhachev was 28; Tsarukyan, 22. Neither was ranked. Lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov — now a central figure in Makhachev’s camp — was serving a suspension following a post-fight brawl between his team and Conor McGregor’s; interim champion Dustin Poirier was still doing victory rounds following an instant classic with Max Holloway; MMA discourse was consumed with what would come next for an absurdly hard done by Tony Ferguson.

Makhachev was at least somewhat recognizable by the hardest-core fans thanks to his ties to Nurmagomedov, but Tsarukyan was a complete unknown making his promotional debut. Many who watched the fight live likely did so accidentally, hungover, or both, flipping on the TV to find a UFC main card beginning at 10:00 a.m. ET. 

But if you happened to catch it over lunch, you saw a technical wrestling all-timer that raised both fighters’ stocks. A fight-of-the-night barnburner of relentless grappling and ground exchanges interspersed with dangerous striking flurries on the feet.

Ultimately, Makhachev claimed a unanimous decision thanks to slight edges in the first and third rounds. But Tsarukyan undeniably pushed him. And as Makhachev proceeded trucking his way through the lightweight division, each of his wins over higher and higher ranked fighters better aged Tsarukyan’s performance in St. Petersburg.

The young Armenian went on stacking victories and performance-of-the-night bonuses himself, winning 9 of his next 10 with the lone loss being a razor-thin decision to Mateusz Gamrot in a nip-and-tuck, fight-of-the-year contender. Of the 22 media members to submit their scores to MMADecisions following that fight, 15 ruled in Tsarukyan’s favour.

Still, it was a critical inflection point for Tsarukyan, whose pace slowed noticeably as he fought into a fourth and fifth round for the first time in his life. Energy management isn’t a new concern for him. After the first Makhachev fight, Tsarukyan’s coaches lamented his tempo in the early going and eventual abandonment of the team’s game plan, instead continuing to engage on the mat with one of the best grapplers in the sport.

Tsarukyan doesn’t hide from that. He’s admittedly a stubborn guy. But he also knows Saturday must be different.

“Yeah, this time I’m going to listen to my corner,” he said. “To get the belt, I’ve got to listen to my corner. I have a game plan and I’ve got to keep listening.”

As Makhachev began his lightweight title reign late in 2022, Tsarukyan forced his way into the division’s top-five with legitimizing wins over perennial contender Dariush, who he knocked out in just over a minute, and Charles Oliveira, a living legend still at the top of his game.

Now, the Oliveira win was a split decision and a difficult fight to score because over two-thirds of it took place on the mat. Tsarukyan landed more strikes and had more ground control, yet Oliveira nearly finished the fight twice with submissions. If ever there was an undercard bout that needed championship rounds, that was it.

Either way, it wasn’t exactly a dominant performance. Which is why Tsarukyan is entering Saturday ranging from a +260 to +320 underdog. He still has much to prove. Tsarukyan’s 2023 knockouts of Joaquin Silva and Dariush were decisive. But those aren’t names often mentioned in the same breath as Makhachev’s.

And when Tsarukyan met Makhachev — who was battling food poisoning and nearly pulled out on fight night — he lost. Naturally, there’s no guarantee that the first fight will inform this one. It was over a half-decade ago and both fighters have developed considerably since. But, based on the current evidence, it’s still easier to build a case for Makhachev to have his hand raised on Saturday than it is for Tsaukyan.

“He’s improved a lot. He’s changed his game. He’s started to do very well with the Muay Thai clinch, he’ll throw his knees. He has a very smart game. He doesn’t waste his energy. He doesn’t do a lot, but it’s enough to win,” Tsarukyan said of Makhachev. “And he’s in his prime right now. He’s 33 years old and he’s got a lot of experience. He’s had a lot of title defences. But I think I’m in my prime as well and I’m ready to beat him.”

Now, despite his opponent’s credentials, it’s not impossible to envision Tsarukyan taking Makhachev down — if anything, we ought to expect it. He’s averaged 3.25 takedowns per 15 minutes over his career. He took down Charles Oliveira of all people. He landed one on Makhachev the first time they fought. Is he really going to spend five rounds avoiding one of his biggest strengths?

But Tsarukyan’s biggest challenge on the mat has been striking the balance between controlling his opponent and landing damaging ground-and-pound. Oliveira was calmly able to neutralize Tsarukyan’s ability to do damage when he was on top. A wrestler as proficient as Makhachev is unlikely to make that any easier for him.

And, if anything, Tsarukyan will need to prioritize control even more if he gains an advantageous position on the mat because Makhachev is a huge, strong lightweight with a suite of techniques he can utilize to flip momentum in a heartbeat from various positions.

Makhachev says he walks around at 180 pounds and an interesting wrinkle of this fight’s location is that the California State Athletic Commission records and releases fight night weights for all athletes. We’ve all seen Makhachev during fight weeks. You’ve seen zombies more energetic. It won’t be a surprise to learn next week that Makhachev was the heavier man on fight night.

Not only that, but Makhachev’s a danger to threaten submissions from anywhere which was a useful tactic for Oliveira against Tsarukyan. And Makhachev’s the guy who arm-triangled Oliveira out of nowhere when they fought in 2022.

That said, Tsarukyan’s equalizer could be his kicking game. The offence in some of his better performances has been built upon a flurry of kicks from range, and while Makhachev is very adept at avoiding significant head strikes, he’s more hittable to the body and legs.

Volkanovski tried to exploit that tendency in his first fight with Makhachev, targeting the front leg and frequently going to the body. Makhachev, on the other hand, hasn’t done much leg kicking in recent fights, instead sitting back and waiting to counter. You have to be extremely nitpicky to poke holes in Makhachev’s game, but it appears an opening is there if Tsarukyan can volume kick from the centre of the octagon.

Of course, in order to kick, you must be on one leg. And that’s when your balance is most compromised, making you susceptible to takedowns. If Makhachev can time Tsarukyan’s kicks, a takedown ought to be there. No one shoots quicker — like he’s blasted from a cannon — than Makhachev diving for a single- or double-leg. And if Makhachev can funnel Tsarukyan’s back to the fence? Forget about it. Of course, good luck finding a moment in a Tsarukyan fight when he allowed himself to be put in that position for more than a heartbeat.

Perhaps you’re getting a sense of why this matchup’s so compelling. Styles make fights, and these two versatile skill sets were practically made for each other. High stakes, high IQs and a high degree of danger in both directions. It won’t take much of a mistake for either fighter to present the opening the other needs. What we didn’t know when they first fought was that we were watching a preview of what MMA would look like in the future. Saturday, we get another chance to see what it looks like now.

“I can tell you right now it’s going to be one of the best fights in lightweight division,” Tsarukyan said. “Our fight was almost six years ago and everybody still talks about that fight. I can’t imagine what happens this Saturday after we have improved so much. This time is going to be the same. People are going to talk about this fight for the next ten years, as well.”

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