Friday Four: Rantanen’s looming extension puts Avalanche in big predicament

The Friday Four is a collection of thoughts and information on some intriguing player storylines from around the NHL. On deck this week:

• Rantanen’s contract could become an issue for Avs

• Canada may regret not taking Thompson

• Is the league doing enough to protect its stars?

• Bobrovsky needs some rest

Mikko Rantanen, Colorado Avalanche

Mikko Rantanen is one of the NHL’s most unheralded superstars. 

The average hockey fan understands Rantanen is a good player, but maybe not just how good. He’s on pace for over 100 points and 40 goals for the third straight season and sits third in ice time among all forwards in the league. If there is a discussion about who the NHL’s best players are today, you’ll hear people point to McDavid, Draisaitl, Matthews, MacKinnon, Kucherov and Kaprizov, yet you won’t often hear Rantanen’s name. 

One person who knows his worth is Rantanen himself. The 28-year-old’s contract is expiring at the end of this season and it doesn’t appear he and the Avalanche are close on an extension. Sportsnet’s Nick Kypreos noted in his most recent Trade Board that the two sides have significant ground to bridge if they hope to reach an agreement, making things very complicated for Colorado with the trade deadline fast approaching. Kypreos adds that Colorado has received calls on Rantanen, but the Avalanche hope to keep him. That is the ideal scenario, however, if Rantanen isn’t locked up by the deadline, would the Avs ever consider moving him?

One of the reasons Rantanen can get overlooked is that as good as he is, he’s arguably the third-best player on his own team. It’s splitting hairs, but you could easily make a case that Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar are both more important to the Avs than Rantanen, which complicates things financially. MacKinnon is making $12.6 million, though he signed that deal in 2022 when there was an entirely different cap situation. At that time, MacKinnon became the league’s highest-paid player, but now the cap is supposed to make a significant jump and continue on an upward trajectory. The Avs probably would want to maintain an internal cap under MacKinnon’s number but it’s unlikely Rantanen would sign long-term for less than that. 

Rantanen could end up looking at Leon Draisaitl as more of a comparable. Draisaitl’s extension, worth $14 million annually, kicks in next season, and both players have very similar numbers this year and last season. Maybe Rantanen settles for a little less than $14 million, but it’s likely going to be closer to Draisaitl’s number than MacKinnon’s. How comfortable would Colorado be paying Rantanen more than their best player, the league’s leading scorer and perhaps a back-to-back Hart Trophy winner depending on how this season plays out?

Even if it makes the Avs uncomfortable, they may not have a choice. Colorado is one of the more top-heavy teams in the league, and its bottom-nine forward group is extremely thin. The team relies on Rantanen not only offensively, but also to move him to centre on the second line at times as well. Casey Mittelstadt has really struggled and the luxury of being able to shift someone like Rantanen into his spot to balance out the lineup is invaluable. If the Avs weren’t able to come to terms with Rantanen, it would only add even more pressure on the shoulders of MacKinnon and Makar.

The only scenario where it would even remotely make sense to consider moving Rantanen is if the Avs were certain they couldn’t re-sign him. It would be a last resort move to avoid losing the player for nothing in free agency. Rantanen would certainly bring back a haul, and Colorado could always target multiple roster players in return to help balance out their lineup. None would be as good as Rantanen, though, and it’s hard to envision any type of deal where Colorado would come out ahead. It would definitely make them worse in the short term and hamper their chances at a long playoff run. 

There’s also the question of what deal Rantanen is looking to sign. We’re assuming he wants an eight-year contract, but it’s possible he could opt for a shorter term, much like Auston Matthews recently did. Rantanen could potentially consider a three-to-four-year deal and then look to cash in one final time in his early 30s with a max-term contract when the cap rises. I’m not sure how much that would lower the AAV for Colorado and regardless, their cap situation is going to become very complicated next season. 

The Avalanche are already very tight to the cap, and Rantanen is likely to get at least somewhere in the neighborhood of a $4 million raise if they keep him. That’s going to put more strain on the roster and potentially deliver another blow to Colorado’s depth, even with a rising cap. Then there’s also the matter of Gabriel Landeskog, who is trying to work his way back from injury. Should he make a comeback, Colorado would have to find room for his $7 million cap hit as well. 

If Rantanen were to become available, there would no doubt be dozens of teams lining up to make their pitch both in the trade market and next summer in free agency. The Avs definitely don’t want it to get to that point, but they are stuck between a rock and a hard place where Rantanen is concerned. 

The Avalanche may not be able to afford to keep Rantanen, and they may not be able to afford to lose him. 

Logan Thompson, Washington Capitals

The roster selection for Team Canada at the 4 Nations Face-Off has already been scrutinized up and down, and expect that to become even more intense if Canada doesn’t win the tournament. Following Canada’s disappointing departure at the World Junior Hockey Championship and some questionable roster decisions there, another poor showing in February will certainly have fans up in arms. 

One of the first places fingers could be pointed at is the goaltending. Normally a strength for Canada, this year’s trio — Jordan Binnington, Adin Hill and Sam Montembeault — leaves a lot to be desired. There’s no obvious, bona fide number one out of the bunch, which makes it all the more curious Logan Thompson was left off the roster. 

The Washington Capitals goaltender is having a stellar season, sporting a 22-2-3 record with a .925 save percentage and is closing in on Connor Hellebuyck in goals saved above expected at 26.8. Thompson has been even more incredible of late, allowing one goal or less in seven of his past 11 starts. He has been as close to perfect as you can be in goal and one of the biggest reasons the Capitals are atop the Metropolitan Division. In 27 appearances, Thompson has managed to pick up points in all but two games. 

Despite all this, it seems Thompson was never really that close to making the squad.

Thompson added in that interview from the Fan Hockey Show on Wednesday that he doesn’t even think he has a chance if there’s an injury to one of the other netminders. 

“If there was to be an injury, I know I probably won’t get that call, and that’s OK,” Thompson said. “They’ve got their guys, and I just hope that Canada goes out there and wins it all.”

Montembeault, Binnington and Hill have a combined save percentage of .899 this season, so there’s no doubt Thompson could really help the team, and he’s by far the hottest goalie Canada has at their disposal right now. 

We shouldn’t write off Canada’s goaltending entirely, as both Binnington and Hill have big-game experience and Stanley Cups to their names. They could easily come through and play well, but so much about goaltending is catching lightning in a bottle and who is playing the best right now. 

If Team Canada had a mulligan, they would probably use it on Thompson. 

Connor McDavid, Edmonton Oilers

There was a lot of debate about Connor McDavid’s suspension, but to me it’s a simple case of two things can be true. The officials need to do a better job in that situation and there is never an excuse for cross-checking someone in the face like McDavid did. 

As Conor Garland was hanging off McDavid in the dying seconds, it brought up the question: Does the league do enough to protect its stars? The NFL and NBA clearly see the value in making sure their stars are able to perform at a high level, even if that means some questionable roughing-the-passer penalties. I don’t think the NHL has to do anything drastic as far as the rules go, other than simply calling penalties when they’re committed. 

If McDavid draws 10 penalties in a game, call 10 penalties. NHL officials always seem to be trying to manage the game and balance out the calls far more than other sports. If one team has two or three power plays in the first period, you know they aren’t getting another one until the opposition gets at least one or two. 

Teams also know that refs tend to put their whistles away late in games and in overtime, which is likely why Garland seemed to fear no repercussions latching onto McDavid. Garland knew there was so little time left in the game that he likely wouldn’t be called for a penalty or if he did, there wouldn’t be enough time left for it to matter.

My outside-the-box suggestion would be to make a rule that if a player takes a penalty in the final 15 seconds with their team leading (or in overtime) 30 seconds get added back onto the game clock. That way the team trying to tie the game gets some legit power-play time and it would be at least somewhat of a deterrent for the team leading to commit intentional infractions. 

I don’t necessarily think the NHL has to make things easier on star players, but at the end of the day, it’s still a business. No one wants to buy a ticket and see a player hanging all over McDavid, no one wants to see anyone get cross-checked in the head and no one wants to see the league’s best player miss three games. 

Sergei Bobrovsky, Florida Panthers

Sergei Bobrovsky has played a lot of hockey over the past few seasons. 

The Panthers netminder is on pace for his fourth straight season of more than 50 starts to go along with back-to-back deep playoff runs. Bobrovsky has played an additional 43 games over Florida’s past two post-seasons, something that’s no doubt starting to wear the 36-year-old down and take a toll on his numbers. 

The normally reliable Bobrovsky hasn’t been as sharp as he has in the past. He owns an .897 save percentage this season and things have gotten worse of late. Bobrovsky has allowed four goals in three of his past four starts and has managed only two wins this month. It would probably be wise for the Panthers to start giving Spencer Knight more playing time, who has been excellent lately. 

Knight is 3-1-0 with a .960 save percentage in January and is starting to really find his groove. The 23-year-old is still very inexperienced with barely 75 NHL games to his credit, but he’s outperforming Bobrovsky right now and could help give the veteran some much-needed rest. I don’t think there’s any type of goalie controversy in Florida, and Bobrovsky will almost certainly start Game 1 of the playoffs, though Knight could play a crucial role down the stretch here. 

The Panthers are in a tight battle with the Toronto Maple Leafs for the Atlantic Division title, and Knight could keep them in the hunt with the way he’s playing and help Bobrovsky remain fresh at the same time. Even if the Panthers don’t claim the division, I don’t think they’ll be too devastated about it. Florida’s No. 1 concern is getting to the playoffs healthy and rested up for what they’ll be hoping is another deep run. 

Bobrovsky was a huge reason the Panthers were able to capture the Cup last season, and if they plan to repeat, he’ll need to play a similar role this spring. Knight could be the key to making sure Bobrovsky’s body is in the best possible position to once again make that happen.

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