UFC Cage Locks: Does Moicano stand a chance against Makhachev at UFC 311?

The UFC’s 2025 schedule got underway last weekend with a Fight Night card that saw nine bouts end in a knockout or submission and the theatrics have only gotten more extreme in days leading up to Saturday’s anticipated UFC 311 card.

An unexpected lightweight title matchup between undisputed champion Islam Makhachev and last-minute replacement challenger Renato Moicano is now set to headline after it was announced Friday that Makhachev’s original opponent, Arman Tsarukyan, had pulled out with a back issue on the eve of first pay-per-view event of 2025.

Makhachev has won 14 consecutive fights since 2016 and is looking for his fourth consecutive title defence since becoming champion in 2022.

Against Tsarukyan, Makhachev was sitting at close to a 4-to-1 betting favourite but that swelled to him being a 10-to-1 favourite when Moicano was announced as his new opponent.

Moicano had been a slight favourite over his original opponent, Beneil Dariush, but is now in a position to pull off what would be considered one of the biggest upsets in lightweight history given the circumstances.

The co-main event is between men’s bantamweight champ Merab Dvalishvili and unbeaten challenger Umar Nurmagomedov, plus former UFC titleholders Jiri Prochazka and Jamahal Hill go toe-to-toe in a main card meeting of knockout artists.

UFC 311 will proceed with 13 fights after Friday’s main event switch, including three bouts featuring high-ceiling, undefeated prospects on the preliminary card.

Our trio of prognosticators got off to a hot start with their UFC picks last week with a successful Cage Locks parlay, plus multiple underdog hits.

Full UFC 311 bout order and predictions below:

MAIN CARD

— Islam Makhachev vs. Renato Moicano

— Merab Dvalishvili vs. Umar Nurmagomedov

— Jiri Prochazka vs. Jamahal Hill

— Jailton Almeida vs. Serghei Spivac

— Kevin Holland vs. Reinier de Ridder

PRELIMINARY CARD

— Payton Talbott vs. Raoni Barcelos

— Bogdan Guskov vs. Billy Elekana

— Zachary Reese vs. Azamat Bekoev

— Grant Dawson vs. Carlos Diego Ferreira

— Karol Rosa vs. Ailin Perez

— Rinya Nakamura vs. Muin Gafurov

— Ricky Turcios vs. Bernardo Sopaj

— Tagir Ulanbekov vs. Clayton Carpenter

Ahead of each UFC event in 2025, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter), producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) and writer/editor Mike Johnston (@MikeyJ_MMA) will peruse the odds and make four betting predictions: one best bet, one favourite, one underdog and one dart throw wager. REMINDER: Sportsnet is committed to promoting and educating audiences about the importance of betting responsibly. Sources for responsible gambling can be found HERE.

AARON’S UFC 311 PICKS
Best bet: Islam Makhachev to win outright -1000
Favourite: Jamahal Hill -139
Underdog: Clayton Carpenter +260
Dart throw: Diego Ferreira wins inside the distance +475

I expect Makhachev is going to be far too much for Moicano to handle, especially on short notice. Hill is excellent at what he does, which is his technical boxing mixed with the power that he possesses, if he remains disciplined, he beats Prochazka more often than not. Carpenter is an undefeated prospect and I have never been blown away by Ulanbekov, who does not possess much power and has low output. I like Carpenter to pull off the upset. Dawson implements a grappling heavy approach, which can be dangerous against the sort of ingenuity that has made Ferreira such a live underdog for the duration of his long UFC tenure.

DAN’S UFC 311 PICKS
Best bet: Payton Talbott to win outright -1200
Favourite: Reinier de Ridder -125
Underdog: Jiri Prochazka +115
Dart throw: Muin Gafurov +460

Payton Talbott to win is probably the safest bet on the card. Kevin Holland struggled against Roman Dolidze the last time out and I expect RDR to cause similar problems in this one. Prochazka and Hill both need a bounce back win and both are coming off losses to Pereira but I think Jiri had the better showing. For that reason, I like his chances of pulling off a slight upset here. If the same Nakamura from UFC 298 in Anaheim last year shows up…an upset could be on the table. Oddsmakers had him breezing past Carlos Vera last February and in the end it was a much closer fight than the scorecards indicated. Nakamura was underwhelming last time out, so at these odds Gafurov is worth considering.

MIKE’S UFC 311 PICKS
Best bet: Bernardo Sopaj -250
Favourite: Reinier de Ridder -125
Underdog: Merab Dvalishivili +220
Dart throw: Makhachev vs. Moicano ends in Round 3 +550

This is one of those cards where initially I envisioned the dogs thriving and Tsarukyan at +285 was going to be my upset prediction. Although Umar Nurmagomedov is probably the worst style matchup at bantamweight for Merab Dvalishivili, and I can absolutely see the belt changing hands with Dvalishivili asleep either by choke or strike, the defending champ being more than a 2-to-1 underdog makes little sense, especially when you consider strength of schedule at the UFC level. Sopaj is an awesome prospect who I expect to bounce back from that brutal KO loss he had in his debut last year. Trying to cast a wide net with this dart throw pick, leaving the door open for some drama and even an upset that would mean “Money” for anyone on that winning side.

CAGE LOCKS PARLAY
Three legs: Islam Makhachev + Payton Talbott + Bernardo Sopaj
Parlay odds: -150 (to win: $66.82)

2025 STANDINGS AFTER 1 EVENT

CAGE LOCKS PARLAY 

2025 record: 1-0 (W1)
2025 winnings: +$52.30 (on $100 bets)

AARON’S RECORDS/TOTALS
Best bet: 1-0 (+$10)
Favourite: 0-1 (-$100)
Underdog: 1-0 (+$220)
Dart throw: 0-1 (-$100)

DAN’S RECORDS/TOTALS
Best bet: 1-0 (+$15.38)
Favourite: 0-1 (-$100)
Underdog: 1-0 (+$185)
Dart throw: 0-1 (-$100)

MIKE’S RECORDS/TOTALS
Best bet: 1-0 (+$20)
Favourite: 1-0 (+$68.97)
Underdog: 0-1 (-$100)
Dart throw: 0-1 (-$100)

Best bet: The pick deemed to be the wager most likely to win regardless of what the odds look like. The Cage Locks parlay will combine Aaron’s, Dan’s and Mike’s respective best bet for each event.

Favourite: A fighter with winning odds shorter than -300 but not longer than -110. On chalkier cards with a dearth of available moneyline favourites that meet those criteria, prop bets are allowed to be selected.

Underdog: Any fighter with longer odds than their opponent’s.

Dart throw: Any prop bet or moneyline wager with odds of +400 or longer.

(Betting odds above are via BetMGM, submitted at various times throughout week, and subject to change prior to the fights)

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