Oscars 2025 Predictions: Who Will Win and Why

The Oscar nominations are in. Thankfully. After previous attempts to announce what the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences deemed the greatest achievements in film this year were delayed due to the deadly and tragic wildfires ravaging Southern California, it’s a small mercy that something as trivial—but normal—as Oscar nominations could resume.

And this morning’s nominations certainly came with their fair share of shocks and surprises, all of which you can read about here. Was Margaret Qualley overlooked for The Substance? Did Jeremy Strong deserve a nomination over Denzel Washington? All that is water under the bridge now. What remains is the nominees. Who should win and why?

With the admitted caveat that this is absurdly early to speculate on, we decided to give you our reading of the race as of nomination morning and attempt to predict this far out who will win in the major categories. We’ll give our reasons and leave to you whether they’re worth heeding ahead of placing your own bets and predictions in the office pool. But going forward the movies and contributions we think will win will be bolded. The ones we think should win will be italicized. And they’ll be both when the choices are one in the same.

Best Picture

Anora
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
I’m Still Here
Nickel Boys
The Substance
Wicked

We’ve been doing this for a while now, and to be honest Best Picture is usually one of the easier races to call in most years (like last year or the year before it). By this point, narratives have taken root after the festivals, the critics groups awards, and industry chatter. But frankly 2025 is so wide open that even this morning I had to reevaluate my theory that Conclave could be this year’s Spotlight (a consensus pick which benefits from the preferential voting ballot the Academy uses for BP).

As it turns out, the love for Conclave might be a lot less fervent in an Academy that conspicuously snubbed Edward Berger for Best Director and the film’s immaculate cinematography, courtesy of Stéphane Fontaine. But you know who did get into that category? Paul Guilhaume for Emilia Pérez, a nod that added to the film’s massive 13-nomination haul. The industry love for Pérez is visibly strong through all corners of the Academy, but is it stronger than the media backlash, particularly on apps like X and TikTok? To be sure, the frontrunner is still probably The Brutalist, a more elegant and epic achievement from director Brady Corbet.

The Brutalist is impressive work. However, it is also brooding, pensive, and ultimately pessimistic about the American immigrant experience. While that might reflect the feelings of a lot of Academy members right now, historically the Academy prefers films that uplift their spirits over those that leave them beleaguered. It is one reason why perceived frontrunner The Power of the Dog lost to CODA in 2022 (and Power wasn’t 3.5 hours). Conversely, Emilia Pérez sends a message of hope wherein a trans woman becomes a better person after her transition, leaving behind a lifestyle of murder and pain as a Mexican drug cartel leader—even as she is not fully absolved of her past sins.

There are plenty of reasons why Emilia Pérez could still lose. No, not the social media hate. They also despised Green Book (which much more uncomfortably rewrote the life of Donald Shirley to fit its feel-good narrative). Furthermore, Emilia appeals to the international members of the Academy which are less concerned with American culture wars. But Emilia also is a Netflix release, and the Academy has adamantly refused to give the streaming service the Best Picture Oscar. But in such a wide open field as this, Netflix might have found its best opportunity to finally nab the top prize.

Meanwhile, I personally much prefer the elegiac grace and groundbreaking innovations of RaMell Ross’ Nickel Boys. Anora is also a one-of-a-kind movie that skewers the classism of our current world without being alleged of appropriating culture.

Best Director

Sean Baker, Anora
Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
James Mangold, A Complete Unknown
Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez
Coralie Fargeat, The Substance

Strangely, despite all the equivocating and second-guessing on Best Picture, Best Director seems much more straightforward. Ultimately, the reason we hesitate to recognize The Brutalist fulfilling its frontrunner status in BP is because the movie is a downer, and the Academy has historically been reluctant to give too many of those their top prize. The serious subject matter of following Holocaust survivors could be viewed as an exception to that rule, but not when it follows them into an indictment of the American experience.

Yet giving such cynicism Best Director will be an easier ask—similar to Jane Campion, Alejandro González Iñárritu for The Revenant, and Alfonso Cuarón for Roma all taking home this award while losing Best Picture. We also admit of this shortlist (where Ross and the equally monumental achievements of Denis Villeneuve are absent), Corbet’s audacity and vision is the one to probably reward. Though truth be told we still had a lot more fun with Coralie Fargeat’s mischievous rage in The Substance.

Best Actor

Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice

Another category where The Brutalist will likely shine brightest is Best Actor. There has admittedly been some negative press about the film using AI to enhance accent marks for when performers are speaking (occasionally) in Hungarian, but we suspect that bit of awards season campaign sniping and gossip will fall on deaf ears given how poignant Adrien Brody is in a film that romanticizes the American immigrant, if not the America which resists him.

Still, personally, Colman Domingo gave the best male performance of the year as an inmate at Sing Sing prison who finds transcendence, and maybe even fleeting escape, through artistic expression.

Best Actress

Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez
Mikey Madison, Anora
Demi Moore, The Substance
Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here

What a difference a single speech can make. A month ago, I wasn’t sure Demi Moore would be nominated by virtue of starring in a horror movie (look at Qualley’s snub). Yet after her powerful acceptance remarks at the Golden Globes, she went from “on the bubble” to the absolute frontrunner. Her turn in The Substance is the performance of her career, which as she noted had been dismissed and diminished over the years by men in the industry. That she now is nominated for playing a middle-aged woman who destroys her body in order to attract the male gaze will not be lost on Academy voters.

We won’t be upset to see Moore have her long overdue moment on the Oscar stage. But speaking purely unto the performances, there wasn’t a better one this year in any category than Mikey Madison’s ferocious creation in Anora. She brings the humor, defiance, and barely teased tragedy of a sex worker from Brooklyn to life in a film that is equal parts screwball comedy and emotional heart-wrencher.

Best Supporting Actor

Yura Borisov, Anora
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice

Jesse Eisenberg wrote the role of Benji Kaplan in A Real Pain for his friend Kieran Culkin, and in the process appears to have set Culkin up for an Oscar. It is a true actor’s showcase where Culkin employs his natural charisma to ingratiate the audience and also make them wince at the hurt and loneliness that humor can only cover up for so long.

Best Supporting Actress

Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown
Ariana Grande, Wicked
Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez

Is it category fraud to nominate what is clearly a lead performance like Zoe Saldaña’s under the “Best Supporting Actress” umbrella? Absolutely. Does that change the fact she is going to win? Not anymore than it did for Viola Davis in Fences or Tatum O’Neal in Paper Moon. And Saldaña really is wonderful in Emilia Pérez, a fact even its harshest critics must begrudge. World-weary and beaten down by life, she exudes exhaustion and anxiety even while belting songs atop a hotel ballroom’s glossy tables.

Best Adapted Screenplay

James Mangold and Jay Cocks, A Complete Unknown
Peter Straughan, Conclave
Jacques Audiard (in collaboration with Thomas Bidegain, Léa Mysius, and Nicolas Livecchi), Emilia Pérez
RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes, Nickel Boys
Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar; Story by Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, and John “Divine G” Whitfield, Sing Sing

A category where Conclave might still get the recognition it deserves is here. With its taut and instantly immersive narrative making the intricacies and relics of the Vatican seem accessible and exciting, Peter Straughan’s script is an entertainment that appeals to a wide audience. It also, ahem, sticks its landing a lot better than Emilia Pérez…

Best Original Screenplay

Sean Baker, Anora
Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold, The Brutalist
Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain
Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum, and Alex David, September 5
Coralie Fargeat, The Substance

One of the most original and intriguing voices of his generation, Sean Baker has gone ignored by the Academy, even as he has won over other awards bodies like the Independent Spirits and Gothams. This might finally change with the warmth and delayed ratatat charm of his Anora screenplay. The Brutalist could still win this one too, but it shouldn’t.

Best Animated Feature

Flow
Inside Out 2
Memoir of a Snail
The Wild Robot
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

Four months ago, I would have sworn The Wild Robot had this locked up. Chris Sanders and DreamWorks Animation’s unique take on motherhood by way of synthetic intelligence and a baby gosling is still the animated film of the year that will stick with me most, but plenty of animators who work within the industry and Academy admire the independent ambition and achievement of Latvian filmmaker Gints Zilbalodis on Flow. They’ll likely put the animated mini-epic about a cat—and which was also nominated for Best International Feature—over the top.

Best International Feature

I’m Still Here
The Girl With the Needle
Emilia Pérez
The Seed of the Sacred Fig
Flow

Emilia Pérez is a darling across acting, directing, and the Academy’s various technical branches. Its Netflix status might be a hindrance for the top prize, but definitely not here. Even so, the tragedy and heartbreak in The Seed of the Sacred Fig feels a lot more authentic.

Best Cinematography

The Brutalist
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
Maria
Nosferatu

Cinematographer Lol Crawley and Brady Corbet shot The Brutalist on antiquated VistaVision lenses from the 1950s in order to present it in a roadshow 70mm format. The nostalgia and tip of the hat to old timey Hollywood epics will probably win it this Oscar, though Greig Fraser did way more with a larger-scale format (and on an admittedly bigger budget) in Dune: Part Two. Both also pale when compared to the flawless shadows and precise camera movements in candlelight implemented by Jarin Blaschke on Nosferatu.

Best Film Editing

Anora
The Brutalist
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
Wicked

Another technical category where we suspect Emilia Pérez will do well is Best Film Editing by virtue of how it balances the avant garde musical numbers with a kinetic pace. You never truthfully are certain where the movie is going. Among these, however, the best choice is Conclave’s ability to mimic a thriller despite it never being much more than old men squabbling in gardens and courtyards. Still, the category itself feels a bit like a sham since the best achievements in film editing this year—Challengers and Dune: Part Two—are missing.

Best Production Design

The Brutalist
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Nosferatu
Wicked

A place to recognize the most popular movie of the year, Wicked’s production designs are admittedly exquisite. But Nosferatu actually felt transportive into a different time and place.

Best Costume Design

A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Gladiator II
Nosferatu
Wicked

It is a bit arbitrary to pick between what were all sumptuous examples of worldbuilding by fabric in Wicked, Gladiator II, and Nosferatu. We know where the Academy’s tastes lie, but as a personal preference, Denzel Washington really got to rock the hell out of those robes.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

A Different Man
Emilia Pérez
Nosferatu
The Substance
Wicked

Did you watch The Substance? Did you see the Monstro Elisa-Sue? Yeah, so did we. Hats off to you all, Pierre-Olivier Persin, Stéphanie Guillon, and Marilyne Scarselli.

Best Original Score

The Brutalist
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
Wicked
The Wild Robot

The love theme between Lázló and Erzsébet is gorgeous and haunting in The Brutalist, but the perpetual tension of Volker Bertelmann’s work on Conclave is cumulatively more satisfying. But to be candid, the absence of Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross and their invigoratingly fresh score for Challengers makes this category suspect.

Best Visual Effects

Alien: Romulus
Better Man
Dune: Part Two
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Wicked

Dune: Part Two will and probably should win this award. However, given the first Dune won for similar sights, we wouldn’t be upset if Weta’s eerily convincing ability to make a talking chimp a pop star in Better Man somehow miraculously broke through.

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