NBA awards check-in: Who leads the pack at the midseason mark?

It’s been three months since the season started, so it’s fair to ask when’s the last time you checked in on your pre-season predictions? How are they? Are they healthy, starving, or is it better not to talk about them at all?

Re-opening that Tweet you sent in October can feel like opening your bank account after the holidays or checking your grades after exam season — it’s best to do it with one eye closed. But there comes a time when you have to face the facts and learn from your mistakes.

(I’ll be the first to admit I wasn’t perfect either, I’m looking at you Donte DiVincenzo.)

That’s what we’re here to do today! We all made mistakes in the pre-season, but it’s time to get a more contextualized look at where the award races stand at the mid-season mark.

Some things were set in stone: Nikola Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander looked like the class of the league, Victor Wembanyama‘s game-breaking defensive ability would change the NBA landscape, and Joel Embiid wouldn’t be able to reach the 65-game threshold. But, to be fair, the season hasn’t been without its fair share of surprises.

Here is how the end-of-season awards are shaping up halfway through what’s been a stellar NBA campaign, and which players are leading the way.

Most Valuable Player — Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder

Hon. mentions: Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets; Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks; Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs

It’s about time Shai Gilgeous-Alexander gets his flowers. The Thunder superstar has been a two-way terror this season, putting up the best confluence of stats on both ends all while leading his Thunder squad to the unquestioned top spot in a crowded Western Conference.

His resume this season is spotless and has a little bit for everyone. Are you boxscore-watching? SGA is averaging 31.4 points (second in the NBA), 5.5 rebounds (fourth among point guards) and 6.0 assists. Are you into defence? He’s averaging 2.0 steals (third in the NBA) and 1.1 blocks (first among guards). How about advanced stats? He’s second in offensive win shares (5.3), first in defensive win shares (3.0) and first in overall win shares (8.3). He’s also second in player efficiency rating (30.1), value over replacement player (4.5) and box plus-minus (11.5).

If your argument against him is that he has a team that could (and should) have another All-Star, the Thunder’s +15.4 net rating with him on the floor versus off of it should disqualify that. Yes, his team is good, but his team is good because of him. So good that they stand far above the rest of the West with a 33-6 record.

The 26-year-old Canadian has developed into the best driver, best ball-handler, and one of the most versatile scorers in today’s NBA, all while being one of the most impactful defenders for an all-time great defence. He’s the best player on the best team and the MVP is his to lose at this point.

Breathing down his neck are the usual culprits in Nikola Jokic and Giannis Antetokounmpo, who both have some unimpeachable cases of their own statistically, but miss out on the record-based portion with the Nuggets sitting fourth in the West and the Bucks fifth in the East.

Victor Wembanyama also deserves a little bit of a shout-out here. The second-year anomaly (side note: stop trying to make Jayson “The Anomaly” Tatum a thing) has been playing out of his mind and belongs in the top five at this point, regardless of the Spurs’ record. The Frenchman is altering the geometry of the game on both ends, nailing 35.1 per cent of his threes while scoring 24.7 points on one end and then blocking a league-leading 4.0 shots on the other.

Defensive Player of the Year — Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs

Hon. mentions: Evan Mobley, Cleveland Cavaliers; Jaren Jackson Jr., Memphis Grizzlies; Dyson Daniels, Atlanta Hawks

You can mail in the ballots for this one today, the race is over.

Before Rudy Gobert won his fourth Defensive Player of the Year award last season, fellow Frenchman Wembanyama told reporters that Gobert’s time on top would soon come to an end, saying “Let him win it now, because after that, it’s no longer his turn.”

He knew it, Gobert probably knew it, and the world knew it. For the next while, the defensive player of the year was going to be Wembanyama’s to lose.

The 21-year-old has made good on his promise so far, nearly lapping the league with 4.0 blocks per game, making Wednesday’s eight-block performance against the Memphis Grizzlies feel like just another night at the office.

Past his absurd defensive counting stats, Wemby leads the league in defensive box plus-minus (3.5) and is fourth in defensive rating (103.4) and defensive win shares (2.4).

You can see his impact in his on-off numbers, where the Spurs have a 109.9 defensive rating with him on the floor versus a 117.4 rating with him off. That’s a collapse from the sixth-best defence in the NBA with him, to 27th without.

While we’re here, Evan Mobley has been every bit the third-overall pick from 2021 that people hoped he would be, helping the Cavs be 6.9 points better defensively when he’s on the court. Jaren Jackson Jr., who has already seen his name etched onto a DPOY trophy, is tallying 1.5 steals and 1.7 blocks per game and took home the Western Conference Defensive Player of the Month for December. Lastly, Dyson Daniels has had a breakout year and has earned the best new moniker in the league, with his league-leading 3.1 steals per game giving way to the name “The Great Barrier Thief.” If there were an award for nicknames, Daniels would be the frontrunner.

Rookie of the Year — Alex Sarr, Washington Wizards

Hon. mentions: Yves Missi, New Orleans Pelicans; Jaylen Wells, Memphis Grizzlies; Whoever your dart lands on after throwing with your eyes closed

Doubters of the 2024 draft class should feel somewhat vindicated with the way this race has turned out. Of all the major awards, this one has the biggest “I guess” factor built into it, because at the end of the day, well, you gotta pick someone.

It’s been an unimpressive class. That’s not to say the talent isn’t there, contributors can be found littered throughout in what may turn out to be a surprisingly deep pool. But in terms of stars, if you’ve ever tried to look up at the night sky while living in downtown Toronto, you’ll probably see the same number of them.

Alex Sarr, the centre from the Wizards and the second-overall pick has pulled away from the pack, averaging 13.0 points, 7.1 rebounds, 1.3 blocks and 0.6 while shooting 41.7 per cent from three-point range since the start of December.

It’s apparent the talent is there, but the Frenchman was drafted as a project, and so far that’s what he’s looked like. The physical tools are great, looking like he could develop into a modern floor spacer or a knockoff of Wembanyama.

But he, and the rest of this class, are unrefined to the point where any rookie that has a half-decent week could find themselves in this top spot by the next time we check in.

Elsewhere, Yves Missi of the Pelicans has looked like a legitimate contributor for a team in desperate need of a centre. He went to a place with a ton of opportunity and has done well with the chance he’s been given, averaging 9.0 points and 8.2 rebounds. Second-rounder Jaylen Wells of the Grizzlies has become a trusted starting piece, contributing well on offence with 11.7 points on 37.8 per cent from three while adding some serious defensive hustle.

Most Improved Player — Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons

Hon. mentions: Dyson Daniels, Atlanta Hawks; Norman Powell (!!!), L.A. Clippers

There’s a real love-hate relationship with the Most Improved Player award concerning the criteria for the guys that should be eligible. In years past, the award went to players like Giannis Antetokounmpo, who in his fourth season, blossomed from a raw project player into a superstar. Or someone like Pascal Siakam, who jumped from 7.3 points a game to 16.9 between his second and third season, earning reps as the second fiddle on a championship Raptors squad.

It’s gone to guys who didn’t necessarily come into the league with sky-high expectations but found ways to grow past them.

Cade Cunningham was drafted first overall…

It’s not to discount what Cunningham has meant for the Pistons this season. The 23-year-old has developed into a bonafide first option and a leader for a Detroit squad finally taking the leap. He’s averaging career-highs in points (24.5), rebounds (6.6), assists (9.4), field goal percentage (46.0), three-point percentage (38.2) and blocks (0.8).

But wasn’t this what was expected of him? Wasn’t he supposed to be this good? That’s the pedigree that comes with being taken first overall.

It can be argued that the jump from star to superstar is a more challenging one than role-player to star. Couple that with carrying a formerly decrepit Pistons team to relevancy, and it makes some sense as to why he’s seen as the favourite to take home this award. He’ll be named an All-Star for the first time this year and he’s on his way to becoming a household name. It’s still hard to kick the feeling that it’s a bit of a cop-out to give a former first-overall pick the MIP.

Look at Dyson Daniels for example, who has jumped from 5.8 points to 13.0 a night and is leading the league in steals by a wide margin. Or Norman Powell, who in his 10th season is scoring a career-high 23.7 points while shooting a lights-out 44.6 per cent from three-point range. The most improved player is one of the most subjective awards in sports, as stats are unable to tell the whole story. Who wins this award will come down to how people define improvement and what criteria ultimately qualify.

Sixth Man of the Year — Payton Pritchard, Boston Celtics

Hon. mentions: Malik Beasley, Detroit Pistons; De’Andre Hunter, Atlanta Hawks; Amen Thompson (too bad he’s starting now), Houston Rockets

When Payton Pritchard signed a four-year, $30 million contract extension ahead of last season it may have looked like an overpay, especially after scoring only 9.6 a game on 38.5 per cent from deep during the team’s championship run.

But ‘8-Mile’ has been playing till he collapses this season, functioning as the centrepiece of the Celtics’ bench unit, averaging 14.7 points on 41.5 per cent from three, both career-highs.

Much has been made about Boston’s propensity to shoot the three-ball, with the defending champs firing 49.4 deep shots a game, by far the most in the NBA. Pritchard’s ability as a microwave scorer off the bench has been a big part of that, and his developments outside of simply scoring have helped him earn more reps in the team’s offence. He’s scoring a career-high 62.6 per cent of his shots from inside the arc, he leads all bench players in offensive box plus-minus (3.8), value over replacement player (1.6) and win shares (4.5).

Fighting for the next couple of spots are Malik Beasley, whose 16.5 points per game on 40.4 per cent from deep has been huge for the Pistons, De’Andre Hunter of the Hawks who leads the field with 19.4 points per game off the bench, and Amen Thompson, who is (un?)fortunately now starting for the upstart Rockets to great effect.

Coach of the Year — Kenny Atkinson, Cleveland Cavaliers

Hon. mentions: Ime Udoka, Houston Rockets; J.B. Bickerstaff, Detroit Pistons; Jamahl Mosley, Orlando Magic

Kenny Atkinson, after three years as an assistant coach for the Warriors, has taken the league by storm as the head of the Cavaliers.

Past simply guiding the team to a league-leading 34-5 record and keeping them on an absurd 70-win pace, the bench boss has found ways to help younger players like Darius Garland and Evan Mobley take the next steps, turning the Cavs into a team that looks like it could be great for years to come.

The strides taken by those two players are at the core of the Cavaliers’ success. Garland’s return to form following an injury-riddled 2023-24 season has turned the team into the most productive offence in the league while Mobley has blossomed into a defensive lynchpin, all while continuing to grow shooting the ball. Combine that with Donovan Mitchell’s superstar-level two-way play and the team looks primed for glory not seen in Cleveland since the days of LeBron James.

Cleveland’s strides shouldn’t take away from fellow coach of the year candidate J.B. Bickerstaff, as the former Cavaliers coach has done an incredible job leading the Pistons to prominence. Currently sitting in the seventh seed sporting a 21-19 record, his tenure, so far, has been a stark contrast to the laissez-faire play seen under former coach Monty Williams.

Ime Udoka of the Rockets has done a similar job, elevating the Rockets, to the second seed in the West with a hard-nosed defensive style and buy-in from the veterans. Jamahl Mosely also deserves some love, guiding the Magic to steady waters despite a raging storm of injuries to stars like Paolo Bancher, Franz Wagner and Jalen Suggs.

Clutch Player of the Year — Darius Garland, Cleveland Cavaliers

Hon. mentions: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder; Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets; why is this an award?

Gotta save the best for last?

Clutch Player of the Year continues to be a confusing award, as more so than any other, this should on paper be the most objective one. And objectively, Darius Garland is the best clutch player in the NBA this season.

Garland leads the league with a 51.1 net rating in clutch situations (minimum 12 games played) while carrying an absurd 32.7 usage percentage. He’s been efficient as all get out, putting up a 10.0 assist-to-turnover ratio while notching a 72.4 true effective field goal percentage and 78.3 true shooting percentage.

There’s also a case to be made for Nikola Jokic, who is averaging 4.6 points in clutch situations while shooting 54.0 per cent from the field and 50.0 per cent from three, or Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who has been solid with a 25.4 net rating in clutch time for the infallible Thunder. But Garland, and the reliability of the Cavaliers, stand at the top.

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